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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 60.6% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 52.9% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 41.0% | -4.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.9% | +8.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Focused Flames, Morgan, Soul Guide, Disintegrate. Losers more often ran: Flame-Rune Swordsman, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Meltdown.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focused Flames | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Shieldmaiden | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |